Donald Trump holds a narrow advantage in Ohio, while voters in the three battleground states that put him over the top in 2016 prefer Joe Biden, according to Fox News statewide surveys of likely voters.

Biden leads by 12 points in Michigan (52-40 percent), 5 points in Pennsylvania (50-45 percent), and 5 points in Wisconsin (49-44 percent).  Biden’s advantage is outside the margin of error in Michigan, but not Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Trump carried each of these states by less than a percentage point in 2016.

Trump’s 2016 victory in Ohio was by a wider 8-point margin, which is higher than his current 3-point edge in the Buckeye State (45 percent Biden to 48 percent Trump).  That’s a reversal since last month, when Biden was ahead by 5 points in Ohio (50-45 percent).

The number who favor Trump’s re-election lags his 2016 vote share in each state.

Biden’s leads are not insurmountable. Trump has improved his standing in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since September.

However, few voters are up for grabs. In each of the four states, fewer than 10 percent are undecided or support a third-party candidate. Plus, roughly equal majorities of Biden and Trump supporters, about 8 in 10, are extremely committed to their candidate.

It’s tough to overstate how important women voters are to Biden. They prefer him by 19 points in Michigan, 6 in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania, and 17 in Wisconsin. And he trounces Trump among suburban women: Michigan +35 points, Ohio +18, Pennsylvania +29, and Wisconsin +21.

Trump is the choice among rural voters in each state — by wide margins in Ohio (+27 points) and Pennsylvania (+21), and smaller spreads in Michigan (+11) and Wisconsin (+6). In 2016, he won rural voters nationally by 25 points, according to Pew Research Center validated voter data.

White men without a college degree were an important constituency for Trump four years ago, and they are still big supporters. He leads by double-digit margins among this group in all four states (by 15 points in Michigan, 35 in Ohio, 19 in Pennsylvania, and 18 in Wisconsin). The president’s lead is nearly as large among white men overall. He’s up by 12 points in Michigan, 24 in Ohio, 13 in Pennsylvania, and 19 in Wisconsin.

6 thoughts on “Trump gains in Ohio, Biden ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin”
  1. Let not your heart be troubled. This poll is way off and is meant to discourge Trump voters. I predict Trump will win all these battleground states mentioned in this article and will end up with about 321 electoral college votes.

  2. The polls have shown Biden ahead all year because they had to. In my opinion, the people do NOT care for Joe Biden. They favor President Trump. But in order for the Democrats to feel Biden had a chance, they had to show the people he was ahead so they (Democrats) would get out to vote.
    If the polls showed Biden behind in the polls the Democrats would not go and vote because they would say he had no chance to win.
    It will be interesting the night of November 3

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