Donald Trump holds a narrow advantage in Ohio, while voters in the three battleground states that put him over the top in 2016 prefer Joe Biden, according to Fox News statewide surveys of likely voters.
Biden leads by 12 points in Michigan (52-40 percent), 5 points in Pennsylvania (50-45 percent), and 5 points in Wisconsin (49-44 percent). Biden’s advantage is outside the margin of error in Michigan, but not Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump carried each of these states by less than a percentage point in 2016.
Trump’s 2016 victory in Ohio was by a wider 8-point margin, which is higher than his current 3-point edge in the Buckeye State (45 percent Biden to 48 percent Trump). That’s a reversal since last month, when Biden was ahead by 5 points in Ohio (50-45 percent).
The number who favor Trump’s re-election lags his 2016 vote share in each state.
Biden’s leads are not insurmountable. Trump has improved his standing in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since September.
However, few voters are up for grabs. In each of the four states, fewer than 10 percent are undecided or support a third-party candidate. Plus, roughly equal majorities of Biden and Trump supporters, about 8 in 10, are extremely committed to their candidate.
It’s tough to overstate how important women voters are to Biden. They prefer him by 19 points in Michigan, 6 in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania, and 17 in Wisconsin. And he trounces Trump among suburban women: Michigan +35 points, Ohio +18, Pennsylvania +29, and Wisconsin +21.
Trump is the choice among rural voters in each state — by wide margins in Ohio (+27 points) and Pennsylvania (+21), and smaller spreads in Michigan (+11) and Wisconsin (+6). In 2016, he won rural voters nationally by 25 points, according to Pew Research Center validated voter data.
White men without a college degree were an important constituency for Trump four years ago, and they are still big supporters. He leads by double-digit margins among this group in all four states (by 15 points in Michigan, 35 in Ohio, 19 in Pennsylvania, and 18 in Wisconsin). The president’s lead is nearly as large among white men overall. He’s up by 12 points in Michigan, 24 in Ohio, 13 in Pennsylvania, and 19 in Wisconsin.