If you follow recent polls, you see that somewhere between 45 and 50 percent of Americans wanted President Trump impeached and removed from office. The anti-Trump media is touting those numbers as evidence that Trump cannot possibly win the 2020 election. And if you take those numbers at face value, you might be inclined to believe them.
But right now, the odds are in favor of Trump winning re-election – and the savvy Democrats know it. But how can that be with such terrible numbers. There are several reasons these polls will not be predictive.
First, historically polls have always favored the Democrats – and the further away from an election the greater the bias. No one knows why that is for sure, but one theory is that most of the polling companies are hired or run by … Democrats. It is just a bit of unavoidable bias that creeps into the building of the demographics and the framing of the questions.
The bias may also lead to another problem – one that can be seen when polling numbers are matched with actual results. Most polling models have been shown to overestimate Democrat turn-out and vote.
There is almost always a general shift toward Republican candidates as the election nears. One only need recall Hillary Clinton’s substantial lead over Trump just a month or so before the election. Even on the eve of the election, polls predicted a Clinton victory – closer, but a victory just the same.
There are also specific reasons why Trump is likely to do better in future polling – and he already is in some polls. He is coming out of the Impeachment process with a bit higher favorable rating – and the number of those clamoring for his impeachment and removal is declining. That is a problem for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats because they impeached Trump as their support among the general public was declining.
House Democrats orchestrated the impeachment process for maximum negative impact on Trump. They expected it and need it. Having gotten ahead of the public – and facing the certainty of an acquittal by the Republican-controlled Senate – the Democrat impeachment strategy is collapsing like a wooden tower stacking game.
But perhaps the most important reason for Trump optimism is who gets polled. Some polls cover the American public. Some registered voters. Some likely voters. The value and accuracy of these decline in descending order – with public polling and registered voter polling being utterly worthless.
Even likely voters will not indicate an election outcome. That is because of the Electoral College and the unique distribution of Democrat voters. They are highly concentrated in the big cities of the big very blue states.
To understand why polling can be so inaccurate, you have to look at the 2016 election, in which Trump won the all-important Electoral Collage while losing the popular vote. That was because Clinton racked up HUGE majorities in a few big Democrat states – including California, Illinois and New York. Her margin over Trump was achieved in California alone.
Trump, on the other hand, won narrow victories in 30 states – giving him 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227. It does not matter how huge a candidate’s win is in a single state, they get the same number of electoral votes.
That is also true of national polling. Trump is actually losing ground in those very blue states, but it will not negatively impact on his Electoral Collage vote. By polling only on a state-by-state base – the only way to go – many analysts believe that were the election held today, Trump would again lose the popular vote – even by a wider margin — but still win re-election. One credible analysis even predicts that Trump would lose the popular vote by a greater margin today and still win even more electoral votes than he got in 2016.
Even the mere POSSIBILITY that Trump could be re-elected at the point of his impeachment is a huge red flag for the Democrats. A lot can happen between now and election day, but those who are firmly convinced that Trump will be trounced next November may wind-up reliving election day 2016.
So, there ‘tis.