Why the polls will be wrong about Trump…

If you follow recent polls, you see that somewhere between 45 and 50 percent of Americans wanted President Trump impeached and removed from office.  The anti-Trump media is touting those numbers as evidence that Trump cannot possibly win the 2020 election.  And if you take those numbers at face value, you might be inclined to believe them.

But right now, the odds are in favor of Trump winning re-election – and the savvy Democrats know it.  But how can that be with such terrible numbers.  There are several reasons these polls will not be predictive.

First, historically polls have always favored the Democrats – and the further away from an election the greater the bias.  No one knows why that is for sure, but one theory is that most of the polling companies are hired or run by … Democrats.  It is just a bit of unavoidable bias that creeps into the building of the demographics and the framing of the questions.

The bias may also lead to another problem – one that can be seen when polling numbers are matched with actual results.  Most polling models have been shown to overestimate Democrat turn-out and vote.

There is almost always a general shift toward Republican candidates as the election nears.  One only need recall Hillary Clinton’s substantial lead over Trump just a month or so before the election.  Even on the eve of the election, polls predicted a Clinton victory – closer, but  a victory just the same.

There are also specific reasons why Trump is likely to do better in future polling – and he already is in some polls.  He is coming out of the Impeachment process with a bit higher favorable rating – and the number of those clamoring for his impeachment and removal is declining.  That is a problem for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats because they impeached Trump as their support among the general public was declining.

House Democrats orchestrated the impeachment process for maximum negative impact on Trump.  They expected it and need it.  Having gotten ahead of the public – and facing the certainty of an acquittal by the Republican-controlled Senate – the Democrat impeachment strategy is collapsing like a wooden tower stacking game.

But perhaps the most important reason for Trump optimism is who gets polled.  Some polls cover the American public.  Some registered voters. Some likely voters.  The value and accuracy of these decline in descending order – with public polling and registered voter polling being utterly worthless.

Even likely voters will not indicate an election outcome.  That is because of the Electoral College and the unique distribution of Democrat voters.  They are highly concentrated in the big cities of the big very blue states.

To understand why polling can be so inaccurate, you have to look at the 2016 election, in which Trump won the all-important Electoral Collage while losing the popular vote.  That was because Clinton racked up HUGE majorities in a few big Democrat states – including California, Illinois and New York.  Her margin over Trump was achieved in California alone.

Trump, on the other hand, won narrow victories in 30 states – giving him 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227.  It does not matter how huge a candidate’s win is in a single state, they get the same number of electoral votes.

That is also true of national polling.  Trump is actually losing ground in those very blue states, but it will not negatively impact on his Electoral Collage vote.  By polling only on a state-by-state base – the only way to go – many analysts believe that were the election held today, Trump would again lose the popular vote – even by a wider margin — but still win re-election.  One credible analysis even predicts that Trump would lose the popular vote by a greater margin today and still win even more electoral votes than he got in 2016.

Even the mere POSSIBILITY that Trump could be re-elected at the point of his impeachment is a huge red flag for the Democrats.  A lot can happen between now and election day, but those who are firmly convinced that Trump will be trounced next November may wind-up reliving election day 2016.

So, there ‘tis.

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5 Thoughts to “Why the polls will be wrong about Trump…”

  1. Ken Van Kley

    I agree that the polls are very inaccurate. Another reason for that which isn’t mentioned in your article is that I’ve received so many telemarketing or scam calls that I don’t answer my home phone unless I recognize the person in caller I.D.; so I never get polled.

  2. Buddy

    When polls start asking what the #1 problem is destroying our country and they actually include the words corruption and treason, I might have a tendency to start believing them.

  3. The polls r fake news we know the media is liberal.I stopped my local paper because it’s one sided! I’m glad the media is so stupid to put out false polls because the idiot dems believe their crap! President Trump is going to win big and they will say we stole the election, which is what I believe Obama did in his second term. He was the worst president we ever had!!! Everything the democrats say president Trump has done they have done they’re sick!

  4. Gregory James Topliff

    The wrong person was charged with criminal acts.

    Considering that there were crimes committed by Congressman Schiff, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Representative Jerry Nadler, as a former law enforcement officer I felt it my civic duty to file charges with various agencies that investigate wrongdoing by the above. Having dealt with filing complaints back in the day it would be considered by some agencies as interfering in an investigation if you state who you went to therefore I can’t mention the agencies.
    Knowing that crimes were committed I read some of the laws that govern politicians in the House Ethics Manual. Under Committee on Standards of Official Conduct, General Ethical Standards, I will simply paraphrase some of what is written due to its length.
    All House members and employees must abide by House Rules and adhere to the Broad Ethical Standards, etc. Paraphrasing again, under the “Violations of Ethical Standards” some illegal acts committed by Members can bring fines, censor or removal from office. If there are criminal acts involved that violate the law there can be fines and imprisonment as well, which brings me to the criminal acts I believe Schiff and his coconspirators are guilty of.
    Schiff, Pelosi and Nadler obstructed justice and interfered in the Mueller investigation by withholding and not submitting the evidence they all said they had that proved that Trump colluded with the Russians. If they were all just lying then they violated their oaths of office and committed misfeasance, malfeasance and nonfeasance of office, all ethics violations.
    Congressman Schiff personally committed numerous criminal acts against the President as well as we people through lies and deception violating said oath of office. He violated the law under US codes S.S.1001, S.S.1028, and S.S.1038.
    One of the most egregious acts committed by Schiff was that he forged a declassified transcript document between the Ukraine President and President Trump that was submitted as evidence by President Trump in the impeachment investigation.
    Schiff went before the public calling his version of the transcript a,“ parody” but when you change a legal document from its original form it’s called, “forgery.”
    Schiff then introduced it into the House records making it a falsified document but according to a law he had immunity to do so however, prior to that disdainful act according to the law he already forged the legal document and when he didn’t get permission to make changes he tampered with evidence making it a crime.
    In his attempt to mock and terrorize President Trump, Schiff tampered with evidence and obstructed justice in his own hearing, which violated the following laws that I excerpted under US Codes.
    U.S. Code § 1001.Statements or entries generally
    (a) Except as otherwise provided in this section, whoever, in any matter within the
    (b) jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of the Government of the United States, knowingly and willfully—
    (1) Falsifies, conceals, or covers up by any trick, scheme, or device a material fact;
    (2) makes any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or representation; or
    (3) makes or uses any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any materially
    false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry; shall be fined under this title, imprisoned
    not more than 5 years…
    U.S. Code § 1028.Fraud and related activity in connection with identification documents, authentication features, and information
    (a)Whoever, in a circumstance described in subsection (c) of this section—
    (1) Knowingly and without lawful authority produces an identification document, authentication feature, or a false identification document;
    (2) Knowingly transfers an identification document, authentication feature or a false identification document knowing that such document or feature was stolen or produced without lawful authority.
    (3) Knowingly possesses with intent to use unlawfully or transfer unlawfully five or more identification documents (other than those issued lawfully for the use of the possessor), authentication feature, or false identification documents… The,“ parody” document was used to identify Trump, which pertains to the code.
    U.S. Code § 1038.False information and hoaxes
    (1) IN GENERAL. Whoever engages in any conduct with intent to convey false or misleading information under circumstances where such information may reasonably be believed and where such information indicates that an activity has taken, is taking, or will take place that would constitute a violation… (A) Be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.

    I just started a petition on the White House Petitions site to charge Schiff, Nadler, Schumer and Pelosi with numerous criminal acts. We the People. Will you sign it?

    https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/bring-charges-against-adam-schiff-speaker-pelosi-jerry-nadler-and-chuck-schumer-illegal-acts Cause for petition:

  5. hollyjennings13@twc.com

    You seem like reasonable people but what you are not seeming to notice it that the whole country is in turmoil and a lot of that seems to go back to Trumps’ own rhetoric. And also he’s lack of doing the right thing with the pandemic. Had he acted quickly, we would not be in this state, and had he not incited so many people to do the wrong things we wouldn’t be in this state. And he continues to perpetuate the myth that Democrats want to take everyone’s’ guns away which simply is false. The Democrats aren’t radical leftists but he continues to claim they are. Today Mark Zuckerberg and Dr. Fauci had a very long talk about where they are in the COVID Situation and it pretty much blew all myths out of the water. But Trump has his own narrative and it’s not a reasonable one. Joe Biden on his worst day would still be a better president than Trump on his best day. And how can you have a constitutional country when the President walks all over the constitution like it’s irrelevant. He had not obeyed the laws of the Constitution and has made a mockery of it. How can you support that?

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