It would seem that one of the most pressing questions of the day is whether President Trump can be re-elected in 2020. Presidential candidate-in-waiting Joe Biden suggests that if the Democrats overplay their hand – especially the impeachment card – Trump could get re-elected. Former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan has recently indicated that it is possible Trump could lose the 2020 election.
Yes, folks. It’s True. It is possible Trump could be re-elected or he could be defeated. It is also POSSIBLE that trump could be impeached and removed from office, decide not to run again or suffer a fatal heart attack. The absurdity of the Biden/Ryan insightful conjecturing did not stop all the press panels of parroting pundits to wax less-than-eloquently on one possibility or the other.
Scores of hours of air time by the nets (the media type, not the Brooklyn basketball team) and yards of column inches by the written word newsies have been expended on analyzing, conjecturing, hypothecating, and bloviating on the subject – but to what benefit? At the end of every expressed opinion is the same obvious fact – maybe two facts. First, is that Trump could be re-elected, or he could be defeated.
The second fact – and the one that demonstrates the futility of such political nihilism – is that none of those offering up their opinions have the slightest idea what will happen in 2020. At this early stage, predictive punditry is far beyond the limits of fact-based rationality.
Are we really going to have to endure some 20 months of debates over the possible re-election or defeat of Trump?
Perhaps we should create a graphic in the spirit of the Atomic Doomsday Clock that would provide a daily assessment of Trump’s 2020 chances – with the needle fluctuating between zero and 100 percent. We could even tie the movement of the needle to a national poll on that specific question rather than the opinions of a bunch of pundits with preconceived desires and biases. That might actually give us a slightly better reading of reality – although slightly better does not mean good or accurate. Just a little less absurd.
So … after taking in all the predictions advanced by politicians, political consultants, the news media and various and sundry others who pop up on my television screen, I have come to one inescapable conclusion. Trump will either be re-elected in 2020 – or not.
So, there ‘tis.