Much as been written that the first two Democrat primaries did not reflect America. Basically, the voters were too white – not enough diversity. The Nevada primary was said to be more diverse – more representative of the nation. Still, its 8 percent black population is lower than the national average of 14 percent.
A number of television pundits suggested that South Carolina would be the best representative of diversity. Apparently, they were not doing the math. In the South Carolina Democrat primary, approximately 66 percent of the registered voters are black – and they were 61 percent of the vote. That is almost five times above the national average.
It can be argued that South Carolina was the best indicator of support in the black community, but it cannot be extrapolated over the American population – not even the demographics of the general Democrat voters in America. None of the Super Tuesday primaries will match the black vote of South Carolina. Only Alabama and Georgia come close.
Winning the South Carolina primary was a political lifesaver for former Vice President Joe Biden, but it may not be predictive of his chances in the 14 states (plus American Samoa) that go to the polls on Super Tuesday – and beyond that.
Biden did well among African American voters in the Palmetto State, but he was fortunate to have had the black candidates – New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and California Senator Kamala Harris – drop out earlier. The black voters of South Carolina did not have a brother or sister on the ballot to draw their support. They had to pick from the field of white candidates.
Of course, that will be the case in the future. But Biden’s popularity among black South Carolinians may not, itself, be an indicator of how he does in future primaries in which there are a significant number of black voters.
Southern black voters tend to be a bit more moderate and less racially bound than their northern counterparts. Some see it as the recognized difference between Afro-centric blacks and those commonly referred to as “Island Blacks” – who identify more with the Caribbean than Central Africa. This significant cultural difference is often overlooked or ignored by political analysts who see the black community as one giant monolithic cultural group.
The Afro-centric community is more likely to lean to the expansive welfare policies of the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party. If that is true, it will be seen more in the California, Massachusetts and Minnesota primaries on Super Tuesday – and subsequently in states like Illinois, Michigan and New York. And it may result in less support for Biden than he received from the black community in South Carolina.
On the other hand, Sanders’ still has a problem of attracting a significant number of black Democrat voters in upcoming primaries to maintain an insurmountable lead in the presidential race. That makes the prospect of a brokered convention a lot more likely.
So, there ‘tis.
Article By Larry Horist